With Wimbledon in full swing, there’s definitely a buzz around the office. A few of the team are taking a day off and heading to SW19, hoping to secure a grounds pass by joining the famous queue bright and early.

If you haven’t experienced it, I’d highly recommend it. Even without Centre Court tickets, you can still see world-class players up close – many of them warm up on the outer courts, giving fans a rare chance to watch the greats from just a few feet away. It’s one of those days out that reminds you how much magic there is in simply showing up and staying the course – and that’s something that’s just as important in investing.

Roger Federer played over 1,500 matches and won more than 80% of them, which is remarkable. But here’s the stat that surprises most people: he won only around 54% of the points he played. That’s right – nearly half the time, he lost the point. But over the course of a match, a tournament and a career, that consistency added up to greatness.

The same principle applies in investing. You don’t need to succeed with every trade you place or make exactly the right call in every quarter. What matters is remaining focused on your objectives and staying invested through the ups and downs.

It’s also important for investors to understand that forecasting is a tricky business, even for those who make a career of it. And that brings us to this week’s chart, which looks at analyst expectations for quarterly earnings-per-share (EPS) growth for the US S&P 500 index.

The column in dark blue shows that for the second quarter of 2025, analysts are only expecting S&P 500 companies to grow their EPS by 4% – a relatively low hurdle. Amid concerns about tariffs and a resurgence of inflation, many company management teams may be taking the opportunity to set the bar low.

But with no material increase in inflation and many trading partners working hard to negotiate agreements with the US, we believe companies could surprise on the upside. Like a seasoned player underplaying their fitness in a press conference, it’s all about managing expectations – and potentially exceeding them.

In both tennis and investing, it’s about the long game. Keep showing up, play the percentages, and stay focused on what matters. Federer didn’t win every point, and neither do investors. But the odds improve with time.

‍Key takeaway

Don’t worry about winning every point. Stay consistent, invest intelligently, and over time, the wins will come. Winning 54% of points was enough for Federer to succeed in 80% of matches. The same approach can work in your favour if you stay the course. The global stock market has good days and bad days. But history shows that most years have been positive. Data beginning in 1980 shows that in 33 out of 44 years the MSCI World Index delivered a positive annual return*, so 75% of the time. That illustrates very clearly why we believe long-term investing is a winning strategy.

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*Source:FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

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This article is provided for general information purposes only and should not be construed as personal financial advice to invest in any fund or product. These are the investment manager’s views at the time of writing and should not be construed as investment advice. The opinions expressed are correct at time of writing and may be subject to change. Capital is at risk. The value and income from investments can go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. An investor may get back significantly less than they invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance and should not be the sole factor considered when selecting funds.