As we headed toward the Spring Statement, excitement levels were… well, modest. The Government had been dropping hints for weeks that this would be more of a relatively ‘dull’ update than a headline‑grabbing ‘blockbuster’. In fact, they were quite determined that the Spring Statement would be exactly what it said on the tin: a straightforward fiscal and economic update, with no unexpected tax surprises lurking in the footnotes.

Markets took the hint. With the Autumn Budget now firmly positioned as the main fiscal event of the year, analysts settled in for what they expected to be a quiet afternoon of incremental forecast tweaks from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). In other words, nobody was expecting fireworks, maybe just a polite sparkler.

Ahead of the announcement, commentators predicted Chancellor Rachel Reeves would lean heavily on a theme of stability. And to be fair, the Government has been busy trying to restore economic calm after a rollercoaster few years. Inflation has eased to around 3% – a welcome drop from the highs of 2022, though still annoyingly above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Economic growth (as measured by gross domestic product or GDP) is creeping forward at a glacial pace, and unemployment has nudged up to a five‑year high. Not exactly the backdrop for grand gestures, but certainly one that required a steady hand.

Rachel Reeves stuck firmly to the script, reassuring the nation that “the government has the right economic plan for the country.” She highlighted falling inflation, reduced borrowing and an improving standard of living, painting stability as the essential foundation for future growth. The message was clear: keep calm, carry on and do not expect any dramatic mid‑year fiscal acrobatics.

The OBR’s accompanying forecasts confirmed what everyone already suspected: the economy is moving, just not quickly. Fourth-quarter growth landed at a barely-there 0.1%. Borrowing costs were a little lower than expected – a small win – but weaker migration data and slowing momentum elsewhere dampened any upbeat narrative that might have been brewing.

Perhaps one fly in the Chancellor’s stability ointment came in the form of the OBR’s warning that the conflict in the Middle East could have “very significant impacts on the global and UK economies".

For investors though, the statement pretty much delivered what it said on the tin. No stealth tax tweaks. No new reliefs. No threshold adjustments. And absolutely no deviation from the Government’s ‘one Budget per year, please and thank you’ approach.

A non‑event? Yes – but a deliberately crafted one. And sometimes, especially in uncertain times, dull can be its own kind of reassuring.

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Edward Kennedy is Head of Marlborough’s Personal Portfolio service.

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