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Tobias Bucks: Move beyond the noise for peace of mind – and for opportunity

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In an article first published by Wealth DFM, Tobias Bucks explains why the impact of geopolitical ‘noise’ on investors’ thinking should be strictly limited, other than acting as a signal to seek out new opportunities.

2 MIN

There was a time when news bulletins routinely ended with a quirky, uplifting story. News at Ten’s “And finally…” segment, usually fronted by Trevor McDonald, was perhaps the most famous example.

There are several potential explanations for why we see rather less of this approach today. Cynics might argue that quirky, uplifting stories are simply in shorter supply. News editors might argue that YouTube has become the natural home of football-playing pandas and the like.

If we’re feeling mischievous, of course, we could also argue that many news bulletins no longer actually end. Logically, there can be no “And finally…” segment in an era when coverage is literally relentless.

This may be less than helpful for investors – not because they miss the heartwarming spectacle of rollerskating dogs but because they risk being overwhelmed by “noise”, most of which is negative. Noise is an acknowledged enemy of informed investment decisions.

The biggest noise of all tends to surround geopolitical events. Almost inevitably, these are felt to have geoeconomic implications. During the past year or so, amid the turbulence of Donald Trump’s second presidency, the din from them has been uncommonly loud.

Investors could be forgiven for being affected by the clamour, not least in the face of non-stop exposure. In many cases, though, it really ought to have a strictly limited impact on their thinking – save for encouraging them to seek out new opportunities.

Rupture, deal-making and other distractions

Extreme geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty defined 2026 even before the current conflagration in the Middle East. The year kicked off with a World Economic Forum (WEF) dominated by talk of the crumbling of long-established relationships.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney set the tone by warning of an international “rupture” and urging the “middle powers” to take more responsibility for their own destinies1. Speaking the following day, Trump offered precious little to contradict this headline-grabbing narrative2.

You might suppose that, as the co-manager of a fund that invests in global equities, I’m greatly moved by such developments. You might even presume that they prompt me to undertake frantic reassessments of my holdings. But this isn’t exactly the case.

From an investment perspective, macro considerations are frequently less important than what’s happening at the business level. This can be of particular significance in the under-researched arena of smaller companies, which is where our fund specialises.

By way of illustration, imagine I was asked to name some holdings likely to prosper in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s presidential election victory. Then imagine I was invited to name some able to thrive in the wake of “Liberation Day”. And now imagine I’m asked to name some capable of succeeding in the face of today’s turmoil.

Frankly, there’s a good chance the same businesses would get the nod every time. Why? Because my colleagues and I expect the companies we back to keep delivering growth over the long term, irrespective of what the macro environment might be.

Don’t let calm turn into inertia

That said, it’s vital to draw a line between remaining calm and doing absolutely nothing. Out-and-out inactivity can often be counterproductive, because the fact is that volatility creates circumstances that are geared towards the generation of alpha.

To put it another way: there’s always a bull market somewhere. Turbulence brings winners and losers, and it’s the job of active fund managers to identify the former and avoid the latter.

Crucially, these distinctions are rarely determined solely on the strength of the ever-spinning news cycle. They instead nearly always result from in-depth analysis of an individual business’s pros and cons and from insights gained through direct engagement with companies and their senior managers.

The lesson? The macro situation has its place and shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand, but there’s no good reason to believe its role in each and every investment decision is now larger than before.

In my view, regardless of the twists and turns unfolding all around us, the best way to benefit from uncertainty is to remain firmly focused on fundamentals. Get beneath the surface. Stay composed, accept volatility and move beyond the noise.

I guess this is why I feel there’s much to be said for a return to the “And finally…” age. As well as sending us all to bed in a better frame of mind, it could help more investors realise that a genuine understanding of a company’s unique attractions is normally far more instructive than a perpetual diet of doom, gloom and soundbites.

Tobias Bucks is co-manager of the IFSL Marlborough Global SmallCap Fund

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1See, for example, World Economic Forum: “Davos 2026: special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada”, January 20 2026 – https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-mark-carney-prime-minister-of-canada/.
2
See, for example, World Economic Forum: “Davos 2026: special address by Donald J Trump, President of the United States of America”, January 21 2026 – https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-donald-trump-president-united-states-america/.


This article is provided for general information purposes only and should not be construed as personal financial advice to invest in any fund or product. These are the investment manager’s views at the time of writing and should not be construed as investment advice. The opinions expressed are correct at time of writing and may be subject to change. Capital is at risk. The value and income from investments can go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. An investor may get back significantly less than they invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance and should not be the sole factor considered when selecting funds.